Labour has moved into a clear five-point lead over Reform UK in the latest Survation Westminster voting intention poll, in another encouraging sign for Prime Minister Andy Burnham following his arrival in Downing Street.
The new poll puts Labour on 28%, up one point, with Reform UK on 23%, down one. The Conservatives are on 21%, up two points, while the Liberal Democrats stand at 10% and the Greens at 8%.
The figures
| Party | Share | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 28% | +1 |
| Reform UK | 23% | −1 |
| Conservative | 21% | +2 |
| Liberal Democrats | 10% | +1 |
| Green Party | 8% | −2 |
| SNP | 2% | |
| Plaid Cymru | 2% | +1 |
| Restore Britain | 2% | |
| Other | 4% |
The poll was conducted by Survation between 7 and 10 September, with 1,729 people surveyed and undecided and refused responses removed from the headline figures. Change figures are against Survation’s 26–28 August survey, which had Labour on 27% and Reform UK on 24%.
Labour strengthens position under Burnham
The result represents a notable improvement from Survation’s polling during Burnham’s first month as Prime Minister.
In Survation’s 18 August poll, Labour and Reform UK were tied on 26% each. That followed a period in which Labour had begun recovering ground after Burnham became Labour leader on 17 July and Prime Minister three days later.
The latest figures suggest Labour has now moved beyond that initial recovery and established a more substantial lead.
Labour’s 28% is also four points higher than the 24% recorded in Survation’s final poll during Keir Starmer’s premiership.
Reform falls back
The poll also shows Reform UK slipping to 23%.
That puts Nigel Farage’s party five points behind Labour and only two points ahead of the Conservatives.
The narrowing gap between Reform and the Conservatives will also attract attention following a difficult period for Reform, including continuing scrutiny over party funding and internal divisions.
The Conservatives have risen to 21%, suggesting the competition on the political right remains fluid.
Burnham bounce appears to be continuing
Survation previously described the early improvement in Labour’s polling after the leadership change as a possible “Burnham effect”.
Before Burnham took office, Labour and Reform had been tied at 24%. Labour then rose during his first weeks in Downing Street, as Labour Home reported at the time, before the two parties were level again in mid-August.
The latest poll now gives Labour its strongest position in this recent Survation series.
For Labour MPs, the result will provide further encouragement that Burnham’s emphasis on devolution, investment, public services and a more interventionist economic agenda is helping the party rebuild support.
Three-way contest remains competitive
Despite Labour’s lead, the poll also underlines how fragmented British politics remains.
Labour, Reform and the Conservatives are separated by only seven percentage points, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens continue to command significant support.
That means relatively small movements in public opinion could still materially change the political picture.
But for Labour, the direction of travel is currently positive.
After entering Downing Street with Labour struggling to regain the initiative, Burnham now has a Survation poll putting his party five points clear of Reform — strengthening the case within Labour that the change of leadership is beginning to translate into an electoral recovery.
