Monday 26 October 2026 · Covering 19–25 October
This week at a glance: Andy Burnham has announced a further £432 million for rough sleeping, taking the package to £874 million. That is a funding commitment, not a confirmed end to rough sleeping. Inflation rose to 3.5% and September borrowing was above the OBR forecast. Three pollsters put Labour ahead, and dissatisfaction remains high. Further down: housebuilding starts, an obesity-treatment report, Yorkshire’s India mission, retail sales, the first phase of Steps to Safety, and Lords changes to the Armed Forces Bill. Announcements, forecasts and parliamentary stages are kept separate from homes already built, jobs already filled and services already running nationwide.
The three biggest stories
- A larger rough-sleeping package, with delivery still to be proved
- Inflation, borrowing and a softer hiring picture before the Budget
- Labour leads in three polls, and most voters are still dissatisfied
1. The rough-sleeping package doubles, and the Christmas test is local
On 25 October the Prime Minister announced a further £432 million behind the commitment to offer every person sleeping rough a route off the street, or wider support, before Christmas. The extra sum is due to be set out in Wednesday’s Budget and would take the total behind that commitment to £874 million, extending support beyond March 2027 and through the rest of this Parliament.
This is a funding and mobilisation commitment. It is not evidence that rough sleeping has ended. Work is already under way in Coventry, with provision planned in Plymouth and Camden. The National Housing Federation has offered to help identify at least 2,000 potential homes and bedspaces. That is an offer to identify places, not 2,000 people already moved in.
The test is whether councils, housing associations and outreach teams can turn a national deadline into safe, sustained accommodation.
2. Inflation, borrowing and hiring set the Budget test
CPI inflation rose from 3.1% in August to 3.5% in September, the highest rate since October 2025. Transport, particularly motor fuels, made the largest upward contribution. A higher inflation rate means prices are rising faster. It does not mean the price level has fallen in any earlier month.
Public-sector borrowing was £24.5 billion in September, £1.8 billion higher than a year earlier and £1.9 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast. Borrowing in the first half of the financial year was £6.0 billion above forecast. A monthly borrowing figure is not itself a change in the fiscal rules.
The labour market was mixed. Employment rose to 75.3% and unemployment edged down to 4.7% in June to August, but payrolled employment was 111,000 lower than a year earlier in August, vacancies fell to 691,000 and total pay growth slowed to 3.7%. Public debt passed £3 trillion on a provisional cash measure, while debt as a share of the economy was lower than a year earlier. The ONS has cautioned about the quality of the labour-force data.
ONS inflation · ONS public finances · ONS labour market
3. Three polls put Labour ahead, and dissatisfaction stays high
YouGov’s 18–19 October survey of 2,520 adults in Great Britain put Labour on 27%, the Conservatives on 23% and Reform UK on 22%. Opinium’s 21–23 October survey of 2,050 UK adults put Labour on 30%, eight points ahead of Reform on 22%. Ipsos, fielded online from 15–22 October among 1,109 British adults, put Labour on 32%, the Conservatives on 24% and Reform on 20%.
Three firms pointing the same way is stronger than one poll. It is still a short-term snapshot, not a seat forecast and not a settled realignment. Ipsos found 66% dissatisfied with how the government is running the country, and 47% saying it did not deserve re-election. Opinium found Andy Burnham on a positive net approval rating. In the Ipsos issue ratings Labour led on the cost of living and health, while immigration remained a weakness.
4. Housing starts rise, and completions stay flat
Figures released on 23 October show 44,700 permanent-dwelling starts across the UK in April to June, about 14% more than a year earlier. Completions were broadly flat at 44,870. In England, seasonally adjusted starts reached 35,910, up 6% on the quarter and 20% on a year earlier. Completions were 35,800, down 3% on the quarter and 1% higher than a year earlier.
More starts are not yet more finished homes. The Commons Library notes that part of the rise in recorded starts reflects more starts being captured after Building Safety Regulator reforms. The UK total, the England series and any political housebuilding target are different numbers.
ONS housebuilding · Commons Library
5. MPs call for a national obesity-treatment plan
The Health and Social Care Committee said on 23 October that obesity should be treated as a chronic, relapsing condition, and called for a national plan in place of fragmented weight-management services. MPs want clear waiting times, structured pathways, better training and more capacity for dietary support, exercise programmes, bariatric surgery and GLP-1 medicines.
This is a recommendation to government, not a change in what the NHS currently provides. The committee argues that scarce NHS access to GLP-1 medicines has created a two-tier system based on ability to pay. The government’s response is due by 23 December.
Health and Social Care Committee, 23 October
6. Yorkshire mayors return with India partnerships
Tracy Brabin, Oliver Coppard and David Skaith returned from Yorkshire’s first joint trade mission to India with agreements in health innovation and technical textiles. The confirmed outputs include a partnership between Health Innovation Yorkshire & Humber and Hyderabad’s IKP Knowledge Park, a University of Huddersfield agreement with the Indian Technical Textile Association, and further skills agreements involving the Textile Centre of Excellence.
The mission also fed into the launch of West Yorkshire’s Northern Square Mile board and a £6.5 million University of Leeds-led Financial Innovation Exchange, with a new relationship with Gujarat. The UK government’s estimate that the India trade deal could add £170 million a year to Yorkshire and the Humber is a forecast, not money or jobs already delivered.
West Yorkshire Combined Authority · Leeds City Council
7. Retail sales rose over the quarter, then slipped in September
ONS estimates published on 23 October show retail sales volumes up 0.7% in the third quarter compared with April to June, and 1.5% higher than the same period in 2025. Fuel and food supported the quarterly rise. September itself fell 0.4%, after a revised 0.7% rise in August. Supermarkets, clothing, footwear and household-goods retailers reported falls. Monthly retail figures move around. The quarter was firmer. The month ended softer.
ONS retail sales, September 2026
8. A GP domestic-abuse referral service starts in 12 areas
On 23 October the Department of Health and Social Care said the first phase of Steps to Safety is being introduced in GP practices in 12 areas in England. Staff are trained to identify signs of domestic abuse and sexual violence and to connect people with specialist local support.
The programme began in phases in April 2026 and is intended to reach national coverage in England by 2029. This announcement is an early rollout, not a service already available in every practice.
9. Lords change the Armed Forces Bill on housing and cadet bodies
At report stage on 20 October, peers voted 259 to 173 for a military homes standard covering single living accommodation, and removed a clause that would have turned the Reserve Forces and Cadets’ Associations into a non-departmental public body. A separate amendment on overseas operations and the European Convention on Human Rights was defeated.
The Bill is not yet law. Third reading is on 27 October, and the Commons will then decide whether the Lords changes stand. During the debate ministers said £950 million of planned investment in single living accommodation is being deferred this Parliament, while more than £1.4 billion of direct investment in new accommodation remains planned before 2030. Those are plans, not homes already built.
Parliament · Hansard, 20 October
What to watch this week
Tuesday 27 October: Armed Forces Bill third reading, and second reading of the Courts and Tribunals Bill. Second reading is the start of scrutiny, not a completed reform. Lords business.
Wednesday 28 October, about 12.30pm: the Budget, after PMQs. Check rough-sleeping funding, housing, business support and any cost-of-living measures against the OBR forecasts. Parliament notice.
Wednesday 28 October: Health Bill committee begins in the Lords. The Bill is not law. Committee notice.
The week in one sentence
The Budget is the delivery test: the £874 million is committed funding, the 3.5% inflation rate and the borrowing overshoot are the constraint, and the poll lead is a snapshot rather than a result already banked.
