By David L. Phillips
The Strait of Hormuz was open for maritime transit before Trump attacked Iran on February 28. Now it is a choke point strangling global commerce. The embargo disrupted roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies, driving prices sharply higher. About 1,500 ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf.
Even if the Strait reopens, clearing mines will take weeks, if not months. Insurance rates are likely to remain high until the International Atomic Energy Agency certifies that passage is safe. Establishing an orderly transit system will require cooperation among the United States, Britain, France, and Germany who are upset because Trump went to war without consulting them.
Iran insists on charging a toll, which the United States rejects. The route remains dangerous, with the Houthis in Yemen positioned to attack ships in the Persian Gulf, just as they have in the Red Sea.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is a distraction from Trump’s main objective. He appears willing to delay action on Iran’s nuclear program for 30 to 60 days. The key question is whether reopening the strait in the short term would make Iran more or less flexible on the nuclear issue.
Even after Operation Epic Fury, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimated that Iran still had more than 490KG of 60%-enriched uranium, enough for 10 nuclear weapons when enriched to 90%. Secretary Marco Rubio estimates that the breakout time to upgrade this supply is only 12 weeks.
Trump has vowed that Iran will “never have a nuclear weapon.” The JCPOA, known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, was working before Trump pulled out in 2018. It had imposed strict monitoring by the IAEA with snap-back sanctions. Javad Zarif insists that Iran’s nuclear activities were merely a mere matter of “Persian Pride” and Iran had no intentions to develop a nuclear weapon.
Iran resumed enrichment activities when Trump cancelled the nuclear accord. The lesson from North Korea suggests countries are less likely to suffer an attack by the US with a nuclear program than without one.
Iranian negotiators are much shrewder than their US counterparts.
Mr. Phillips is an Anemic Visitor at St. Antony’s College, Oxford University
