Polling seen by Labour Home shows Reform emerging as the biggest winner in local elections on May 7, taking the most contested wards across the country.

Research carried out by Bombe, a consumer insights company which is combining traditional polling methods with AI-powered predictions based on voting behaviour at ward level between 2022 and 2026, shows Reform making its biggest gains outside urban areas, although it is also predicted to perform strongly in east London and Manchester.

Reform is projected to take the largest number of seats on Havering and Barking and Dagenham councils, and the second largest in Bexley, where it will rob the incumbent Conservatives of their overall control. In Thurrock, which is currently controlled by Labour, Bombe is projecting that Reform will take all 49 seats on the council, which has been controlled by Labour since 2024.

The party is also expected to make major inroads in Manchester, which has been a Labour Party fortress for decades. While Labour is expected to retain overall control in six out of the ten Greater Manchester councils, Reform looks set to surge in many places across the north-west, taking the biggest share of the contested seats in all except Manchester, Trafford and Stockport.

The results suggest that Reform is building a strong base at local level across the country, including in areas where the party previously had little or no representation. Its  biggest surge is in Wigan, where Bombe’s polling shows it rising from 2 to 20 seats. Reform is projected to become the second biggest party in Tameside and Rochdale.

More than 4,850 wards across England across England are up for election on May 7. In London more than six million people are eligible to vote, with all 32 boroughs up for election.

Bombe called 17 out of 20 results correctly in the most recent by-elections, and factors in variants including weather and transport data.