Pessimism reigns over upcoming elections and there's no consensus on what should come next
Monday 27th April 2026
Labour members are not happy
Emma Burnell
From the Editor's Desk
Party members are essential to the health of a party. So this level of unhappiness must be taken seriously
Given that Keir Starmer himself has said it was a mistake to appoint Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, it is hardly surprising that our exclusive polling
– done with Survation – finds that 83% of Labour members overwhelmingly feel this has been handled badly.
There are now bigger questions about how Labour members feel about the overall leadership of the Party. While 61% believe that Starmer should not resign specifically over this issue, 46% do believe that Labour should have a change of leadership. That is a very slight lead over the 44% who want Starmer to remain. This 15-point difference shows that it is not just the Mandelson affair that members are unhappy about. There are members calling for a change in leadership who do not feel that it is Mandelson who should trigger this.
Labour members are largely focused on fighting elections across Scotland and Wales, and for councils across England. Our polling suggests that members are extremely pessimistic
about the potential outcomes of these elections. Bad results would be painful for Labour members who will have poured their hearts into fighting to get as many Labour councillors elected as possible. More importantly, it would stop Labour being able to deliver for the people we represent. There are good reasons we care about electing Labour politicians, as Haringey’s deputy leader Sarah Williams has eloquently outlined
for us.
There are a few questions Number 10 will be asking themselves today.
The most important and immediate is whether Labour can exceed these low expectations. If the results are not as dire as Labour members predict, then it may be that they can keep the leadership chatter post-elections to a minimum.
Even if the results are as bad as members think, it may also be that the fact this is already ‘baked in’ will give the PM some breathing space. The difference between the 91% of members who expect bad results and the 46% who want a change of leadership might be the space in which Starmer can build a case for his remaining.
Certainly, Starmer has come out fighting over the weekend, making it clear he is carrying on. He says there is a ‘vast majority’ of Labour MPs who still support him. LabourList journalists speak to MPs all the time, and we do hear both sides of the story. What the percentages are, though, is unclear.
If Labour does outperform on 7th May – or if Labour members still remain torn over whether a bad result should mean a change at the top – he may get his wish.
But there is a difference between expecting the worst and experiencing it. MPs who watch their councillor, AM and MSP candidate colleagues suffer defeat in their patches may well find the pressure on them from CLPs and local members becomes overwhelming. Turning that around will be possibly the biggest challenge Starmer has faced as leader. He has been underestimated before and has exceeded expectations – even his own. Whether he can do so again remains to be seen.
We don’t know what will happen on 7th May. We don’t know what will happen immediately afterwards. We do know that members are not happy with things as they are. That so many are still campaigning so hard is an overwhelming testament to the tenacity of Labour’s membership. We at LabourList salute you!
Speaking of Labour leaders who have had a difficult time with both local councils and a fractious membership, LabourList readers can now watch the full interview I conducted with Neil Kinnock. In it, we discuss how to manage a divided party, what is meant by the ‘Soft Left’, and whether he ever met his Spitting Image puppet.
Remember that Friends of LabourList got to watch live and help shape the interview by submitting questions. If you want to do the same for future events, become a Friend today!
A message from the Royal Osteoporosis Society:
As part of a shift to prevention, ministers have committed 63 times to rolling out early diagnosis services for osteoporosis nationwide. Nearly two years on, there is still no plan and no rollout, while 2,000 people die each year from preventable fractures. Publishing a delivery plan would turn that ambition into action.
The week ahead
This week, LabourList are limbering up for our own marathon. We are making plans to ensure in depth ongoing coverage of the May election results and anything that happens as a response.
We also have some exciting post-election plans to give Friends of LabourList some exclusive analysis - watch this space and join up if you haven’t already!
The only reason we are able to report on the Labour Party in all parts of the UK is down to the support we get from our readers. Join as a Friend
LabourList has a small team and relies on readers like you to keep us going. To all those who already support us, thank you. Today's top stories on LabourList
Labour members say PM mishandled Mandelson saga, but split over need for new leadership
A large majority of Labour members think Keir Starmer has handled the Mandelson affair badly, according to exclusive polling for LabourList.
Labour members overwhelmingly pessimistic about May elections
91% of Labour members expect the May elections to go badly for the party...
Cabinet rankings: Shabana Mahmood least popular minister among members
The Home Secretary has seen her favourability drop by 15 points since February while the PM finds himself in the bottom four for the first time...
'Old New Labour habits die hard'
LabourList editor Emma Burnell argues that the combination of old style 'sofa government' and WhatsApp gives us the worst of both worlds...
Does Rowenna Davis have the recipe for success in Croydon?
James Tibbitts goes to Croydon to meet Labour's candidate for mayor...
Labour's uncensored attack ad exposing extreme views of Reform politicians
Labour has released a hard-hitting Party Election boradcast that puts the spotlight on some of the worst things said by Reform UK figures...
'Labour's youth wings are worth worrying about - and we should be worried'
Caspar Chatham on why we should be concerned about the state of Young Labour and Labour Students...
'Why it's all worth it'
Haringey Deputy Leader Sarah Williams offers a moving personal reflection on the difference her Labour council has made on homelessness...
'It's time for Labour to consider EU membership'
MP for Battersea Marsha de Cordova says Labour should be talking about rejoining the EU...
Letters to the editor
Find out what people have been writing to me about this week...
In other Labour news...
- MOR-GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTEN: Former Keir Starmer aide Morgan McSweeney, is confirmed to be giving evident to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee tomorrow over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US Ambassador. Much discussed but rarely heard from directly this will be the first UK public appearance of the former Downing Street Chief of Staff since he resigned in February. (Times
) - LABOUR TOGETHER REBRAND: The think tank Labour Together is to go through a full rebrand following a tumultuous few months. New Director Alison Phillips says they will stop seconding staff to support ministers and doing internal Labour polling with a new focus on ideas and arguments to change the perception of of it being a “factional boys’ club.” ( Politico
) - LYNCH PIN: Former Secretart of the RMT Mick Lynch has set out why he’s got no plans to back the Greens arguing that they don’t have the “ballast” of the Labour movement behind them in the way the Labour Party does. (Newsnight / X )
- COUNCILLOR’S HOUSE ATTACKED: Newcastle Councillor and candidate Stephen Barry-Stanners home was egged and vile graffiti sprayed on his walls. The incident has been reported to Northumbria Police (Facebook
) - SNP NHS FAILURE: Scottish Labour candidate in Glasgow, Monica Lennon, has called on the next Scottish government to prioritise the NHS after waiting five hours for a vital operation only for it to be cancelled due to staff shortages. (Glasgow Live
)
What I've been watching...
I absolutely love the London Marathon - watching it to clear. It showcases the city I love beautifully while combining the best elements of sport at all levels. You can watch people smash through world records running in the same race as people dressed as bees or Daddy Pig. It strikes me as a beautiful way to celebrate the absolute best of who we are - a reminder we all need sometimes.
And congratulations to the Labour MPs who ran !
Stay connected
If you think anyone else would value our daily email, send them this link.
Got a story to tell us?
The LabourList team
