Survation Makerfield By-election Telephone Poll, Published Jun 4th.
Survation conducted a new poll of the Makerfield constituency, so we've now interviewed and published the results of interviews of over 1000 residents.
Fieldwork in our new poll was conducted by telephone among 518 adults in the constituency between 26th May and 1st June 2026. A combination of landline and mobile data were used.
Methodology Statement:
Population Sampled: All residents aged 18+ living in the Makerfield parliamentary constituency.
Total Sample Size: 518
Data Collection Method: Telephone interview. A combination of landline and mobile data were used.
Fieldwork Dates: 26th May - 1st June 2026
Data Weighting: Data were weighted to the profile of all adults in Makerfield aged 18+. Data were weighted by age, sex, ward and 2024 General Election vote.
Targets for the weighted data were derived from Office for National Statistics data and the results of the 2024 UK General Election.
Margin of Error: Because only a sample of the full population was interviewed, all results are subject to a margin of error. For example, in a question where 50% gave a particular answer, with a sample of 518 it is 95% certain that the “true” value would fall within 4.8 percentage points of the sample result.
NOTE: Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Headline by-election voting intention - Table V2 (likelihood-weighted, undecided/refused removed, no squeeze):
Candidate / Party
Vote share
Andy Burnham - Labour
49%
Robert Kenyon - Reform UK
39%
Rebecca Shepherd - Restore Britain
8%
Sarah Wakefield - Green Party
2%
Jake Austin - Liberal Democrat
1%
Michael Winstanley - Conservative
1%
Another party
<1%
Base: likely voters, factored by likelihood to vote, with undecided and refused voters removed
Because only a sample of the full population was interviewed, all results are subject to margin of error, meaning that not all differences are statistically significant. For example, in a question where 50% (the worst case scenario as far as margin of error is concerned) gave a particular answer, with a sample of 518 it is 95% certain that the ‘true’ value will fall within the range of 4.8% from the sample result.
