Forward Democracy has commissioned Opinium to conduct the largest poll of the Makerfield by-election to date (3-11 June, n=543, mixed online and face-to-face methodology), and the findings suggest this contest remains genuinely on a knife-edge ahead of polling day on 18 June.
Key findings:
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Labour's Andy Burnham leads Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by 46% to 41%, a margin within the poll's margin of error of just under 5% (Tab Q2(3)). -
On a generic "General Election tomorrow" basis, Reform actually leads Labour by around 7 points in this seat (Tab V003(2)). Burnham's by-election lead therefore represents a personal-vote swing of roughly 12 points in his favour, without which Labour would be on course to lose the seat. -
Only 8% of voters remain undecided, and pressing them for a preference does not materially change the topline figures, suggesting this is a largely settled electorate (Tab Q2B). -
Supporters of both Burnham and Kenyon show equally high levels of commitment, with roughly three-quarters certain to vote for their chosen candidate (Tab Q2A).
The relevant data tables are attached and we'd be happy to provide further insights or arrange an interview with Forward Democracy founder Tom de Grunwald.
Quotes below.
Tom de Grunwald, Founder of Forward Democracy, said: “The message in Makerfield is stark. The race is very close and every vote will count. For Green and Liberal Democrat supporters, the maths is clear: Andy Burnham is the only candidate who can stop Reform.
“Andy Burnham is exactly the kind of candidate this moment calls for. He's been one of the most consistent and outspoken advocates for a fairer and more proportional voting system, which would make this kind of messy tactical calculus unnecessary.
“We'd urge anyone who values democracy, and wants it to work better, to lend Labour their vote on 18 June."
James Crouch, Head of Policy & Public Affairs Research at Opinium said: "Andy Burnham enters the final week of the Makerfield by-election campaign ahead, but narrowly so. Labour's five-point lead is smaller than Restore Britain’s current vote share, suggesting that a divided anti-Labour vote may be enough to deliver victory this time, but could leave Burnham vulnerable in future general elections."
Please see below a chart we have produced which summarises all the recent election results and polls, of which this is the latest (in terms of field-work) and the largest (in sample size).
