Britain thinks net migration is rising — but it has actually fallen by more than three-quarters
New research reveals a major gap between public perception and reality as net migration drops to lowest level in decades
Britain is experiencing one of the sharpest falls in net migration on record — yet the vast majority of the public believes the opposite, according to new research published today.
Official ONS data shows that net migration has dropped dramatically from a peak of 900,000 in 2023 to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, and is expected to fall below 200,000 in new ONS figures published today (21 May). It is projected to decline further to below 100,000 by the end of 2026 — levels not seen since the late 1990s (excluding the pandemic period).
But the latest findings from the annual Immigration Attitudes Tracker, published by thinktank British Future today, show that this shift has gone largely unnoticed by the public:
- Just 16% of people think migration fell in the past year. - Half the public (49%) believe it increased, despite the sharp decline. - Most people (51%) expect migration to rise again next year: just one in six think it will fall.
The research, conducted for British Future by Number Cruncher Politics, highlights a striking disconnect between reality and public understanding, with implications for the UK’s political debate and policymaking. Two-thirds (67%) of people with sceptical views on immigration believe migration increased last year — compared with 37% of those with more liberal views. Similarly, six in ten people who want immigration reduced think numbers are still rising, and only 15% believe their preferred outcome — lower migration — will actually be achieved in the next year.
Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future, said:
“A massive perception gap is shaping not just the immigration debate but British politics more broadly. Politicians need to take responsibility for this.
“It’s little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down. We should be having a conversation about how to manage the pressures and gains of migration to Britain.
“Government could lead this with an annual ‘Immigration Plan’ against which they’re held to account in parliament. That kind of accountability could take some of the heat out of our immigration debate – and keep the public better informed, too.”
The study also finds that people massively overestimate the proportion of UK immigration that is for asylum, while underestimating migration for work and study:
- The public estimates that asylum accounts for 33% of immigration — when the true figure is around 9%. One in five people (21%) believes asylum makes up half or more of all UK immigration - People think immigration for study accounts for 24% of UK immigration, but it actually makes up more than half (52%). Work migration is also underestimated (estimated at 23% compared to actual figure of 31%).
The tracker research was published in association with the Policy Institute at Kings College London. Bobby Duffy, Director of the Policy Institute, said:
“We know misperceptions are often more a reflection of an emotional reaction than a calm consideration of the facts, particularly on highly-charged issues like immigration. The public are partly signalling that they're still concerned about immigration.
“But that doesn't mean that facts don't matter. People do update their perceptions when circumstances change, as we've seen through decades of tracking attitudes. But currently there is very little talk about how much immigration has decreased, and instead the public only really see a political and media focus on the risks and how it needs stricter control. In that context, it’s easy to see why we think immigration is still running at record levels.”
Despite the sharp fall in numbers, views on reducing migration remain largely unchanged from last year’s tracker, revealing a clear division of public opinion. Some 55% of the public still want immigration reduced, while 40% would prefer it to stay the same or increase. Most people considering voting Labour, Lib Dem or Green at the next election do not support reductions, while Reform UK and Conservative supporters strongly favour reductions.
The research also finds the public split on tougher settlement citizenship rules proposed by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. British Future Director Sunder Katwala added:
“The government’s ten-year baseline wait to settle permanently isn’t what most people feel is fair – even before the restrictions that could leave some waiting 20 or 30 years for status. That may explain why Downing Street looks set to make changes to their plans.
“Politically, the settlement changes occupy the worst of all worlds for the Labour government: too harsh for most potential supporters on the centre-left, but not tough enough for half of Reform voters.”
ENDS
Number Cruncher Politics surveyed a nationally representative sample of 3,003 adults (18+) across Great Britain from 19 to 30th March 2026. Data has been weighted.
British Future is an independent, non-partisan thinktank and registered charity, engaging people’s hopes and fears about integration and migration, identity and race, so that we share a confident and welcoming Britain, inclusive and fair to all.
For more information, embargoed copies of the report and to arrange interviews please contact:
Steve Ballinger, Director of Communications, British Future on 07891 565592 www.britishfuture.org
