Immigration is a hot political subject. It’s rarely not in the headlines, politicians are constantly trying to leverage the issue to their advantage, and even Rylan Clark has been putting his two cents in.

The days when only 5% of the public mentioned immigration as the most important issue facing the country in 2020 feel like a lifetime ago. 

Our recent polling only adds further evidence to the increasing visibility and importance of the issue. Immigration is now a top three issue for 49% (+4) of the public, behind only the cost of living (60%, -2), and ahead of the NHS (45%, +2). 

Against this backdrop, politicians must be strategic about the areas they decide to rest their campaigns - and ergo electoral fortunes - on. When it comes to parties the public trusts to tackle these issues, Reform has a significant lead on immigration (+14 over Labour), and even a narrow one on the cost of living crisis (+2). Labour are still ahead on the NHS (+6), and are more trusted in other less salient domains. 

This sentiment towards parties is felt at the level of their respective leaders. The net confidence in Starmer’s ability to tackle immigration is -32, and on refugees and asylum seekers it is -36. Farage, on the other hand, is +17 on immigration and +15 on refugees and asylum seekers. 

Beyond immigration, faith in Starmer is still low. Confidence in his ability to deal with the NHS stands at a net score of -18 and on the economy it's -28. Farage narrowly misses out on breaking even on the economy with -1 and is -3 on the NHS. Whilst still not great for Starmer, he stands a greater chance of being competitive on these issues with his sometime-Clacton rival than on immigration, and if he can turn the political trust in the Labour Party to his advantage then the NHS and cost of living could become the key battlegrounds where he finds success. 

Starmer’s dilemma as Farage closes the gap on who would make the best prime minister

In June of this year, we found that despite Reform’s lead in the polls Starmer was still seen as the best candidate to be prime minister out of the three main party leaders. His lead may have been narrow (+4) but it was not insignificant. Now, it’s effectively neck-and-neck between Starmer and Farage when taking into account margin of error - the former leads the latter by one point. 

At the party-level, Farage is way above his rivals, being the only one of the three leaders to have a net positive score when it comes to doing well as leader of Reform UK (+21). Starmer and Badenoch trail on -27 and -3, respectively. 

In the face of such a threat, Starmer and Labour need to be as strategic as possible. Those now backing Farage and Reform UK, who see immigration as one of if not the biggest issue facing the country, are effectively all but lost. To rebuild trust, confidence, and, ultimately, electoral support, they need to shift gears and tackle the issues where they are still competitive with their opponents - cost of living and the NHS. Not only would this be a pragmatic approach in response to the evidence, it would also represent a return to traditional, bread-and-butter Labour values.

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By Chris Rej

Research Executive, Survation