Makerfield Poll: Tight race, but tactical votes and Kenyon controversy tip the balance
The full findings (see attached dataset) of a major poll of the Makerfield by-election, commissioned by independent campaign group Forward Democracy from Opinium, have now been released, showing a contest still on a knife-edge, but one where tactical voting, and a damaging controversy around Reform UK's candidate are working in Labour's favour.
The poll of 543 adults, conducted using a mixed online and face-to-face methodology between 3 and 11 June 2026, is the largest survey of the Makerfield by-election to date.
It's tight at the top.
Among those who gave a voting intention, Labour's Andy Burnham leads Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by 46% to 41% (Tab Q2(3)): the lead is within the poll's margin of error of just under 5%.
A high turnout is anticipated, and just 8% of voters remain undecided. Pressing them for a preference did not shift the figures (Tab Q2B).
Tactical voting favours Burnham.
Of those who say they would vote Green in a general election, 58% say they will vote for Burnham in the by-election, with 0% switching to Kenyon. For Liberal Democrat general election voters, 70% say they will back Burnham against just 4% for Kenyon (Tab Q3).
The Kenyon sexism controversy has caused real damage. 73% of voters say they have heard reports that Kenyon made comments described as hostile to women and insulting toward Carol Vorderman (Tab Q4A). Among those who've heard the reports, the net effect on Kenyon's support is sharply negative: 45% less likely to vote for him against just 11% more likely (Tab Q4B).
Overall, Kenyon's campaign conduct nets at -8%, against +2% for Burnham (Tabs Q4Kenyon and Q4Burnham).
Burnham's personal vote is doing the heavy lifting.
On a generic "general election tomorrow" question, Reform actually leads Labour in Makerfield by around 7 points (Tab V003(2)). Yet Burnham leads the by-election by around 5 points, a personal-vote swing of roughly 12 points.
Many constituents will have voted for Burnham to be Mayor of Manchester, and have experience of him as a local representative.
Burnham preferred PM, while Brexit regret is kicking in.
Asked who they would prefer as Prime Minister if a Burnham win were to trigger a Labour leadership contest against Keir Starmer, voters chose Burnham over Starmer by 54% to 5% (Tab Q6), a preference that notably holds even among Reform's own voters (35% to 7%). Among Labour voters it is 85% to 4%.
Meanwhile, despite Makerfield having voted strongly to leave the EU in 2016, only around a third of voters (34%) now say they are happy the UK left the EU, against 38% unhappy (Tab Q5), though Reform's own supporters remain pro-Brexit (55% happy, 17% unhappy).
Forward Democracy says the findings echo the dynamics seen in the Gorton and Denton and Caerphilly by-elections, where its StopReformUK.Vote advice correctly identified the progressive candidate best placed to defeat the far-right.
The group has issued formal tactical voting advice for Makerfield, available at StopReformUK.vote, and many of its activists have been volunteering to support local campaigns on the ground.
Tom de Grunwald, Founder of Forward Democracy, said:
"This poll tells a remarkably consistent story from every angle. Progressives are set to vote tactically for Burnham to prevent a Reform UK victory. It looks likely that they will tip the balance on the day.
"Many voters in Makerfield have heard about Robert Kenyon's comments about women and Carol Vorderman, and for the majority they have clearly made him a much less attractive prospect. The concerning thing is that these abhorrent views are just a taste of what far-right political figures are bringing to the table.
"What this poll really shows is a constituency that's thinking carefully about what's at stake, and arriving at a clear conclusion: if you want to stop Reform in Makerfield, Andy Burnham is the only realistic way to do it."
James Crouch, Head of Policy & Public Affairs Research at Opinium said: "Andy Burnham enters the final week of the Makerfield by-election campaign ahead, but narrowly so. Labour's five-point lead is smaller than Restore Britain’s current vote share, suggesting that a divided anti-Labour vote may be enough to deliver victory this time, but could leave Burnham vulnerable in future general elections."
